July 25, 2003

SCO Predictions

You heard it here first

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and make a bold prediction. I'm going to predict how the SCO v. IBM and Linux case plays out. I predict that the first major event will be that David Boies resigns from the SCO legal team. When that happens, people will start to realize that the SCO case is weak. It will drag on, and eventually people will stop paying attention. Finally, SCO will win a nominal victory. All their claims won't hold up, just a few insignificant claims. And it will be all over.

Why do I say this? I think there is evidence coming out that was somewhat unexpected -- in particular, the evidence about Caldera's role in Linux development. Caldera was a me-too Linux company. They really believed in Linux, even Linux in the enterprise. It wasn't until a change in leadership that they made a 180 degree turn. But the new leadership had bad corporate memory. They came in from the beginning determined to sue, and they didn't want to consider anything else.

In any case, this is just a prediction. I may be wrong.

Posted by Doug Sauder at July 25, 2003 02:39 PM